Bear with us as we take a stroll down “Math Class Memory Lane.”
Remember ratios? To figure out how to compare this season to seasons past, it’ll help to have a refresher course. That might be the best way you can put this incredibly close championship race in perspective.
The top-eight drivers are separated by a measly 20 points. But with the new simpler point-per-position format, what does that mean, exactly?
Here’s one way to roughly explain it: Earlier this season, NASCAR levied six-point penalties for infractions that in past years would have been 25-point penalties.
So, here’s the equation: if 6 is to 25, then 20 (the differential between first and eighth right now) is to X?
In this particular equation X = 83.3.
In other words, if the points format were the same this season as in past seasons, the top eight would be separated by 83 points.
That would make this the closest Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup ever. The fewest amount of points separating first and eighth after four Chase races was 116 points in 2005. Again, this is a rough estimate.
The names involved, and the storylines surrounding each, make this even more dramatic.
Take Jimmie Johnson, for instance. At Kansas Speedway last Sunday, Johnson won his 20th career Chase race, and has now won at least one race in all eight editions of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, the only driver to do so. Don’t count on him slowing down. After a runner-up finish at Dover two weeks ago and the win at Kansas, a similar outcome seems likely at Charlotte on Saturday night. Johnson boasts six wins at Charlotte, tied for most all-time with NASCAR Hall of Famer Bobby Allison and Hall of Fame nominee Darrell Waltrip.
And Carl Edwards, who nabbed the points lead with an unlikely fifth-place finish at Kansas. He now holds a one-point lead over Kevin Harvick. Or Harvick, who is looking for a sweep of Charlotte after winning his first points race at the 1.5-mile track in May’s Coca-Cola 600.
There are also three past champions within 20 points – aka 20 positions – of Edwards: Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth.
Or how about Brad Keselowski, who has embraced his “Chase rookie stripe” and trails Edwards by only 11 points.
Next Three Races Crucial To Earnhardt On Several Fronts
Nobody has to remind Dale Earnhardt Jr. that the clock is ticking on both his hopes of winning the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship and ending an escalating winless streak that reached 123 races following his 14th-place finish in Kansas.
Earnhardt isn’t out of the championship picture by some measures, although he is ninth and facing a 43-point deficit.
While Earnhardt has yet to record a victory at Charlotte Motor Speedway, May’s Coca-Cola 600 is something on which to base optimism.
Earnhardt nearly won May’s Charlotte race, but ran out of fuel on the final lap. He finished seventh to Kevin Harvick, a re-run of the spring race at Martinsville where Harvick made the winning pass with four laps remaining.
The coming three races – Charlotte, Talladega and Martinsville – are make or break for Earnhardt at least as 2011 is concerned. A five-time Talladega winner, Earnhardt finished fourth at the 2.66-mile superspeedway in April.
“We’ve had some pretty fast cars, some quick enough cars to have some good finishes,” said Earnhardt prior to last week’s race in Kansas. “Man, I would like to win a race before the year is out and I think we can do that as a team. I feel confident that we can do that. I don’t think it’s over by no means.”
Racing’s Sweeter For Keselowski The Second Time Around
By statistical analysis, Brad Keselowski faces an uphill battle in most of the races comprising the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Statistics say he’s a dark horse at best and ranked fourth in the standings after four races, over achiever.
He has just the seventh-best Driver Rating (95.9) among Chase qualifiers over the first four races. Likewise, his average running position, 11.4, betters only five other drivers. Only leader Carl Edwards, however, has a better average finish.
And over the next sixth tracks, his Driver Rating is just 67.2, worst among the top 12. One explanation: Keselowski hasn’t been a NASCAR Sprint Cup competitor long enough to have created a large enough body of work to properly weigh his assets and liabilities.
This week’s Bank of America 500 is case in point. Keselowski has run in the series just four times at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a best finish of 12th in 2009. His average start and finish are almost identical, both ticks over 19, although he won the Coors Light Pole for May’s Coca-Cola 600 and finished – yes – 19th. He’s led nine laps.
Something else to consider: the No. 2 Team Penske Dodge’s performance in the second trip of the season to several tracks:
•Bristol Motor Speedway –18th / 1st
•Michigan International Speedway 25th / 3rd
•New Hampshire Motor Speedway 35th / 2nd
•Pocono Raceway 23rd / 1st
It might be argued that Keselowski is just getting warmed up.
Kahne’s Peak Makes Him A Spoil Sport
Saturday night’s Bank of America 500 marks the anniversary of the last non-Chase qualifier to win a post-season race. Jamie McMurray, outside the top 12 again in 2011, posted his third and final victory in a campaign that included Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 wins.
McMurray, as the defender, is an obvious candidate to spoil things – take bonus points away from the championship contenders. The Missourian has yet to win this year.
A more obvious “spoiler,” however, would be Kasey Kahne, something his 2012 employer Hendrick Motorsports might be viewing with mixed emotions.
Kahne has been red-hot over the past two races finishing runner-up to Jimmie Johnson at Kansas Speedway and fourth at Dover. He’s gone on a tear since the Chase began at Chicagoland with an average finish of 8.25 over the four races.
Kahne is a three-time Charlotte winner who swept both races in 2006.
Drivers who failed to qualify for the Chase – Kahne, McMurray, Casey Mears, Jeff Burton and David Reutimann – have won seven of the last 11 Charlotte races.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Notes
NASCAR has three Electronic Fuel Injection (EFI) tests scheduled this month for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: Oct. 17 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Oct. 20 at Talladega Superspeedway and Oct. 31 at Martinsville Speedway. The tests are part of the continued development of the EFI Research and Development for the teams. Electronic Fuel Injection will be fully implemented in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series beginning at Daytona International Speedway in February 2012. … Milestone Watch: Hendrick Motorsports will attempt to post the organizations 200th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win; Mark Martin will make his 825th series start; Greg Biffle will make his 650th NASCAR national series start and his 325th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start; Jamie McMurray will make his 325th series start; Brian Vickers will make his 250th series start; Kurt Busch will attempt to post his 25th series win; Juan Pablo Montoya will attempt to post his 50th series top-10 finish; Ryan Newman will attempt to post his 150th series top-10 finish and 50th series pole. … Multi-platinum recording artist and country music superstar Sara Evans will perform a pre-race concert for the Bank of America 500, Oct. 15. The concert will begin around 5:30 p.m. on the speedway’s frontstretch and will be part of the pre-race show. … Twenty-nine of Charlotte Motor Speedway’s biggest fans who have been coming to events at the track for half a century will be recognized during pre-race ceremonies for the Bank of America 500 on Oct. 15. Each of the 29 50-year fans have been attending races at Charlotte Motor Speedway since 1960, when the first World 600, now Coca-Cola 600, was run at the legendary superspeedway.
Nationwide Series: Roush Fenway Racing Looking To Make Series Championship History
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Roush Fenway Racing could become the first team in NASCAR national series history to win a drivers championship and an owner’s championship in the same series in the same season – but with different drivers.
That impressive feat seems very real, with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. closing in on his first driver’s title in the No. 6, and Carl Edwards and RFR’s No. 60 closing in on the owners standings lead.
Stenhouse Jr., the current driver standings leader, is 20 points in front of second-place Elliott Sadler with five races to go. Stenhouse has ripped off five consecutive top-10 finishes in the last five weeks, and four of them were top fives. He sat on the pole at Charlotte earlier this season and finished fourth. His pre-race Driver Rating is 67.0 and his average finish at Charlotte is 24.5.
Sadler hasn’t given up. He gained two points on Stenhouse after his third-place finish at Kansas last weekend. In nine starts at Charlotte, he has posted one top five and two top 10s. His pre-race Driver Rating is 82.3 and his average finish at Charlotte is 21.6. Both are better than Stenhouse.
At the other end of the spectrum, Edwards has his sights set on the series owner championship. He’s moved his No. 60 Roush Fenway Racing team to within seven points of the owner champion leader, the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.
Edwards has made up a lot of ground over the last few weeks, especially in races where Kyle Busch has been absent. However, Busch, winner of four of the last seven overall series races at Charlotte (but shut out of the last two), is back in the No. 18 on Friday night. He’ll run twice more this year while Edwards will compete in each of the last five races.
In head-to-head competition this year, Busch has eight wins while Edwards has five. But here’s where Edwards has made up the deficit: He has two wins and six other top-five finishes in 10 of the 11 races in which Busch hasn’t competed (neither ran at Road America).
NASCAR Unites To Bring Awareness To Breast Cancer At Charlotte Motor Speedway
Breast Cancer Awareness has been a big focus for many of the nation’s major sports entities this month, and this weekend NASCAR and Charlotte Motor Speedway will be doing their part to bring awareness and support for a disease that has touched so many of the sport’s friends and family.
NASCAR is uniting to support kids who have been affected by the loss of a loved one to breast cancer. The NASCAR Foundation will raise funds to benefit the Susan G. Komen for the Cure College Scholarship Program through online donations, online auctions and an at-track donation program.
Also, NASCAR participants and officials will have several different ways this weekend to show support for breast cancer: pink NASCAR Breast Cancer Awareness Ribbon A-Post decals for the participating cars and pace car, pink NASCAR Unites lanyards to be worn by officials, teams and fans, pink Mechanix Wear gloves to be worn by officials and teams and pink NASCAR Breast Cancer Awareness Ribbon firesuit patches for officials.
Charlotte Motor Speedway will also honor 101-year-old Nanny Sue Neal, of Waxhaw, N.C., on Friday night. She is North Carolina’s oldest living breast cancer survivor.
Charlotte Marks The Final “Dash 4 Cash” In 2011
Friday night’s race marks the fourth and final NASCAR Nationwide Series “Dash 4 Cash” event of the 2011 season. This go-round, the highest finisher among Elliott Sadler, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Truex and Kenny Wallace will collect $100,000 on top of the race prize money.
Four drivers have been eligible for the bonus in each of the four “Dash 4 Cash” races during the season’s second half – Daytona, Iowa, Richmond and the finale at Charlotte. The first field at Daytona’s July race was set via the top four in driver points entering that event. For the next three “Dash 4 Cash” races, the field was set by the four highest finishers in those races among driver championship contenders. This quartet was decided by their finishes at Richmond last month: Stenhouse was third, Truex a career-best fourth, Wallace was fifth and Sadler, sixth.
Truex, who has blossomed in the five of his late-season six-race deal with Joe Gibbs Racing (one top five, two top 10s, no finish lower than 13th), is racing at Charlotte is a story in itself. The two-time K&N Pro Series East champion, 19, started the season with Pastrana-Waltrip Racing but was free to find another ride when sponsorship ended after 10 races. He wasn’t scheduled to run for JGR at Charlotte, but PWR stepped up to reunite Truex with the No. 99 Toyota for this big chance at a big payday.
Another interesting note on one of the four “Dash 4 Cash” contenders is Kenny Wallace, who is seventh in the points, will make his 519th career start in the NASCAR Nationwide Series, tying the mark set by his good friend, Jason Keller. Wallace is expected to set a new standard in two weeks at Texas.
Additionally, Wallace – a three-time NASCAR Nationwide Series Most Popular Driver and a long-time fan favorite – will have his regular No. 09 RAB Racing Toyota dressed in a “Thank You Fans!” scheme.
NASCAR Nationwide Series Notes
Morgan Shepherd celebrates his 70th birthday this week (Oct. 12). Shepherd has made 316 series starts posting 15 wins and six poles. … As part of the ‘ExtenZe Local Hero’ program, driver Kevin Conway is stepping up to assist the Concord Police Department in the unsolved double homicide case of Donna Barnhardt and Darrell Noles. His No. 87 ExtenZe Toyota will carry an image of Barnhardt and Noles along with contact information on the car’s deck lid.
Camping World Trucks: Smith’s 350 A Toss-Up Between Three Title Contenders
Call Saturday’s Smith’s 350 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series championship in microcosm.
Austin Dillon, James Buescher and Johnny Sauter comprise the top three – and most likely, only – contenders for the 2011 crown.
A year ago, the finishing order of the Smith’s 350 found each of the title hopefuls among the top three. Dillon won the race by 2.474 seconds over Sauter, with Buescher third.
Sauter won the race in 2009, his first series victory – a springboard to an eventual Sunoco Rookie of the Year title.
Dillon, 21 and bidding to become the youngest NASCAR Camping World Truck champion, leads Buescher by three points with Sauter 19 back. He’s coming off his NASCAR Sprint Cup Series debut in Kansas where he finished 26th.
Sauter has been particularly strong on intermediate tracks – he won last year at Kansas Speedway – and this week’s race is crucial to picking up the pieces, so to speak. The Wisconsin driver dominated competition from spring through early summer before faltering.
Buescher continues to seek his first series victory but has been the series’ most consistent competitor logging 17 top 10s in 19 starts. He finished third behind Ron Hornaday Jr. and Dillon in the most recent event at Kentucky Speedway.
Hornaday, meanwhile, hopes to avoid any hangover from the milestone 50th victory – and shake off what has been a Sin City jinx.
“This is one of those tracks that I don’t have a victory at so that is definitely our priority this weekend. I am back with Bruce Cook and the No. 2 truck team this weekend and really looking forward to getting on the track to see what we have,” said Hornaday, who still harbors hopes for the fifth championship. He’s fifth, 42 points behind Dillon. “This team is on top of their game and with five races to go in the season, it’s game time.”
Hometown Victory Would Add Shine To Gaughan’s Lackluster Season
Brendan Gaughan hasn’t exactly been a stranger to his home track, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, having competed at the 1.5-mile track in NASCAR Sprint Cup and NASCAR Nationwide Series events over the past three seasons.
But Saturday’s Smith’s 350 marks a NASCAR Camping World Truck Series homecoming for the 36-year-old Las Vegas native, winner of the race in 2003. Gaughan’s last start in a truck came in 2008, resulting in a 12th-place finish.
Gaughan was hoping for much better as the 2011 season winds down. The eight-time series winner and 2002 Sunoco Rookie of the Year is 13th in the points standings with a single top-five and five top-10 finishes. A victory in his hometown would certainly be welcome.
“Our strong run at New Hampshire (12th) is our precursor for heading to Las Vegas,” he said. “We’re taking the New Hampshire truck to Vegas. It has been to the wind tunnel recently and it has a different downforce balance than our other chassis. I think I’m gonna like the truck there.”
Lofton, Carmichael Have Busier Weekend Than Most
Two drivers, Justin Lofton and Ricky Carmichael, have busy weekends before them. The Smith’s 350 is their primary focus but each has a second “job” once the checkered flag falls at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Lofton will compete off road on Sunday, sharing a Class 1500 Buggy with his father Bob in the Best in the Desert Racing Association’s BlueWater Desert Challenge near Parker, Ariz. The race is a two-day event run on a 28-mile course. The elder Lofton will qualify and race on the first day of competition with the son primed to take over Sunday.
Carmichael’s task is more immediate. He’s set to handle commentary for SPEED’s coverage of the Monster Energy Cup motocross race being held Saturday night at Las Vegas’ Sam Boyd Stadium. Carmichael, a 15-time AMA motocross champion, helped design the course for the two-wheel set’s richest payday.
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Notes
Saturday’s race is the final stand-alone event of the season – and the last in which no NASCAR Sprint Cup points-eligible drivers are likely to compete. The track’s most recent afternoon race in 2002 was won by David Starr. Gaughan and Matt Crafton also were in the field, finishing eighth and 25th. Crafton will make his 268th consecutive start this weekend, surpassing Dennis Setzer for No. 2 all-time. … Five former winners are entered: Dillon, Gaughan, Sauter, Starr and Todd Bodine. … Recently crowned NASCAR K&N Pro Series East champion Max Gresham will make his NASCAR Camping World Truck Series debut in Las Vegas. The 18-year-old Georgia competitor will drive the No. 66 Turn One Motorsports Chevrolet for Stacy Compton. … DeLana Harvick and Kyle Busch continue to battle for the NCWTS owner’s title. Harvick’s No. 2 Chevrolet team holds a 41-point lead over Busch’s No. 18 Toyota.