NASCAR Notebook: NASCAR Point/Counterpoint

Talk throughout this season, and especially this Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, has focused on Jimmie Johnson and his quest for yet another NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. He has five, all in a row, and suffice it to say, the competition is fed up. They’re also catching up, with a bevy of names in contention to nab Johnson’s crown. With that in mind, the NASCAR IMC department has an argument with itself, in a special Point/Counterpoint: Jimmie Johnson Edition.

Point: He’s Done … Six Reasons Why Six Won’t Happen

The four other champions are clicking: Aside from Jimmie Johnson, four other past NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champions are vying for another title: Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon. Stewart won the first two Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup races (Chicagoland and New Hampshire); Busch won the third (Dover). Kenseth is one of four drivers with a Driver Rating over 100 (102.0) in the first three races. Gordon has 23 wins at the next seven tracks, more than any other driver. All four are within 20 points of the leader Kevin Harvick.

Carl Edwards is on fire: Only one driver has scored a top-10 finish in each Chase race thus far: Edwards. He has also scored more points in the Chase thus far than any other driver. And his immediate future shines particularly bright. Edwards considers Kansas Speedway his home track, and puts this race atop his “most coveted” list.

Despite Dover stumble, Keselowski on a mission: Kansas Speedway was Brad Keselowski’s coming out party, winning there in June during the series’ first trip to the 1.5-mile track (for more on Keselowski and Kansas, see page two). Keselowski hiccupped at Dover, finishing 20th – his first finish outside the top 15 since July. Though he slumped to sixth in the standings, Keselowski still has eight top 10s in the last 10 races. He also has victories at two of the next seven tracks: Kansas and Talladega.

Points leader Kevin Harvick knows this pressure: One reason Johnson wins championships: He knows how to handle playoff pressure. After last year’s championship flirtation, so too does Kevin Harvick. Though Harvick, the current points leader, came up short last season, it wasn’t for lack of trying. Only once did the two-time NASCAR Nationwide Series champion finish outside the top 10 during last year’s Chase, and his average finish over the last five races was a pressure-shirking 4.0.

Top seed Kyle Busch will meet expectations: In past years, New Hampshire and Dover have thwarted Kyle Busch’s attempts at a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. At Chase Media Day, he had mentioned how he wanted to get through those two personal landmines, and go from there. He has. Though eighth in the points, his finishes at New Hampshire and Dover were a respectable 11th and sixth. Kansas, though, is another object of frustration for Busch. He has only one top 10 in eight starts.

Statistically, this is the most competitive year ever: Johnson has one victory through the first 29 races, the fewest in his career. His previous low was three wins through 29 events. Last year, he had six at this point. The 16 different winners this season are the most through 29 races since 2007. Additionally, there have been an average of 13 different leaders and 27 lead changes per race, most through 29 races in series history. Simply put, stringing wins together – like the time he won four straight in 2007 – just doesn’t seem likely.

Counterpoint: Are You Nuts? Johnson’s Still The Man

Count Jimmie Johnson out. He dares you.

Most folks likely first dismissed him in 2006. Johnson opened the Chase with a 39th-place finish in 2006, then followed it up with “just OK” runs of 13th and 14th. Of course, he won the title that year – thanks to a win and three runner-up finishes in the second half of that year’s Chase.

Last year, the “Jimmie Johnson’s Done” drumbeat sounded after a 25th-place finish to start the Chase. He hushed those critics in a jiff, winning at Dover in Chase race No. 2.

This familiar chorus sounds again. After dropping to 10th in the points after the second Chase race at New Hampshire – the lowest he has ever been in Chase history – Johnson quickly rung up a runner-up finish at Dover to catapult to fifth in the points standings, 13 points behind leader Kevin Harvick.

Though Johnson’s vulnerability feels like it’s at an all-time high, statistically that’s wrong. Over the last 10 races, he has the second-best Driver Rating (97.4), the second-most laps led (360) and is tied for second in top fives (five) and top 10s (seven). At Kansas, he’s a whiz. He won in 2008, and has finished outside the top 10 only twice.

Keselowski Returns To The Scene Of Kansas Transformation

For Brad Keselowski, Kansas Speedway is where it all began, where the Penske Racing competitor began being viewed as a solid NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competitor.

Yes, Keselowski won June’s race on fuel mileage, which some viewed as lucky happenstance.

But the Michigan driver was just getting warmed up.

For Keselowski, 2011 has been a tale of two seasons – one of frustration, and one with the possibility of actually winning the NASCAR Sprint Cup title.

•In the 12 races in 2011 prior to Kansas, Keselowski posted just a single top-10 finish, third at Darlington.

•He led just four races and finished outside the top 20 seven times.

•Beginning with his Kansas victory Keselowski has led 11 of the past 17 races.

•During that span, he’s scored three victories, been in the top five seven times and logged 11 top-10 finishes.

•Most importantly, he went from 25th in the standings to a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Keselowski rose to third two weeks ago before settling in at his current sixth, 14 points behind leader Kevin Harvick.

The question is whether lightning can strike twice, although Keselowski isn’t feeling a lot of pressure.

“I’m having fun, not because I’m in the Chase; I’m having fun because of fast race cars and a team that is putting it all together,” he said. “We all believe in each other. I just really like the group of people that I’m around.”

Non-Chase Qualifiers Have Made Mischief In Kansas

There are spoilers and there are spoilers. Just 13 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup races have been won by drivers not qualified for the post-season competition, and three have occurred at Kansas Speedway.

It was more surprising that Tony Stewart didn’t qualify for the Chase than that he won the 2006 Hollywood Casino 400. Stewart, after all, won the previous year’s NASCAR Sprint Cup championship. He’s an “in” this year, winning the Chase’s first two races at Chicago and in New Hampshire.

This year’s “outs” that could repeat or imprint their spoiler roles include:

•Greg Biffle, defending winner of the 1.5-mile track’s fall race. In 2007, Biffle failed to make the cut for the second consecutive year after finishing as the runner-up to Stewart two years earlier. Biffle finished 10th at Kansas Speedway in June.

•Joe Nemechek, a veteran of more than 250 races and three victories, was the Kansas winner in 2004. Unlike Biffle or Stewart, Nemechek has yet to qualify for the Chase.

•Mark Martin wasn’t a spoiler when he won the 2005 Hollywood Casino 400. He could become one this week.

•Clint Bowyer, who was raised in nearby Emporia, KS, hopes to improve on his finish of second here in 2007. He won a NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race at Kansas Speedway in June.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Notes 

Milestones this week: David Ragan will make his 175th series start, Mike Bliss will attempt to make his 125th series start, Ryan Newman will attempt to post his 150th top-10 finish and 50th Coors Light Pole and Juan Pablo Montoya will attempt to post his 50th top 10 finish. … Sixteen drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Kansas, including Jim Roper, who won the very first NASCAR Sprint Cup race – Charlotte in 1949. … NASCAR Camping World Truck Series standings leader Austin Dillon will make his NASCAR Sprint Cup debut this weekend at Kansas driving for Mike Curb in the No. 98. Dillon has made two NCWTS starts at Kansas posting one pole and one top 10. … Several local Kansas City heroes will be in attendance this weekend at Kansas Speedway including retired Kansas City Chief Ed Budde, retired Kansas City Royal Greg Pryor and retired New York Islander Ken Morrow, along with Major General Lee Tafanelli.

Nationwide Series: Edwards In It To Win Owners Championship For Roush

With a NASCAR Nationwide Series career that has spanned seven years, 239 starts, one driver championship (2007), 36 wins (fourth all-time), 124 top fives, 168 top 10s, 24 poles and seven perfect Driver Rating performances, Carl Edwards has achieved almost everything. Except this season he has set his sights on the series championship that has eluded him – the owners championship.

With just five races remaining, the top two spots in the owner’s championship are separated by 13 points. The Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 team is still in the top spot, which is not surprising with the cast that has been driving the car this season – Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Drew Herring, Ryan Truex and Michael McDowell.
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Joe Gibbs is going for what would be a record-setting fourth consecutive owner’s championship this season, but Jack Roush, Edwards and the No. 60 team have other plans for the title. Edwards is coming off a dominant victory at Dover, where he led 179 of the 200 laps and posted his second career perfect Driver Rating at the one-mile speedway.

Edwards has been the primary driver of the No. 60 this year, missing just one race. Billy Johnson replaced him at Road America – the first series race Edwards has missed since the June Nashville race in 2005 – and finished 33rd.

Unlike Busch, who is only scheduled for three of the remaining five races, Edwards is scheduled to start the remaining six events.

Edwards is a Missouri native, but he considers Kansas Speedway his home track, and though he has won at 19 different tracks in his career, he has yet to win there. He has made six starts at Kansas, posting one top five and three top 10s.

Logano will be in the No. 18 this weekend and in his three series career starts at Kansas he has posted one pole, two wins and three top 10s.

Confidence Is Key In The Quest For A Championship

One thing is certain, if you want to be the best you have to beat the best, and standings leader Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has done just that this season. Of the championship contenders, Stenhouse is the only one with two wins (Iowa sweep), 13 top fives and 21 top 10s this season. Stenhouse sits 22 points ahead of second-place Elliott Sadler.

Stenhouse returns to Kansas – the track where he made his series debut – just after celebrating his 24th birthday on Oct. 2, to continue his momentum in his championship run after his fifth-place finish at Dover.

As Stenhouse matures with age, his confidence grows.

“I think we are in charge for sure,” Stenhouse said. “But we got to control what we do. We need to not make mistakes and bring good, fast race cars to the racetrack and I got to do a good job of keeping it out of the fence and keeping the fenders on it. So far we have done that, and I think that we have a really good shot at this championship. I think we have a race team that is pretty determined to win this thing,” Stenhouse said.

Stenhouse has one start at Kansas Speedway, where he qualified 18th, led five laps and finished sixth. His pre-race Driver Rating for this weekend is 103.5. Sadler has only one series start at Kansas, and didn’t fare as well as Stenhouse. In that 2005 event, Sadler was caught in an accident and finished 42nd.

Danica Patrick Back In The Hot Seat At Kansas

Danica Patrick returns to the NASCAR Nationwide Series this weekend for the Kansas Lottery 300 at Kansas Speedway. This will be race No. 9 of her 12-race schedule this season. After this weekend she’ll be off until the final three races of the season at Texas, Phoenix and Homestead-Miami.

Patrick will move exclusively to NASCAR next season, running full-time in the NASCAR Nationwide Series for JR Motorsports in addition to a partial schedule in NASCAR Sprint Cup for Stewart-Haas Racing.

In eight races this season, Patrick has posted one top five and three top 10s with an average finish of 16.3. Patrick’s season-to-date Driver Rating is 80.3, which is 28.3 points more than what she finished the season with last year (51.7). This will be Patrick’s first series career start at Kansas Speedway this weekend.

NASCAR Nationwide Series Notes

Timmy Hill and Blake Koch have been the mainstays in the 2010 Sunoco Rookie of the Year Award chase. Hill has had the upper hand most of the season and despite a summer comeback by Koch, continues to hold off his nearest challenger by two points. Now Ryan Truex, who was the odds-on-favorite to win the award at the start of the season, has worked his way back into the conversation thanks to a late-season surge with his new team, Joe Gibbs Racing. Truex, the two-time NASCAR K&N Pro Series East champion, picked up a six-race schedule with JGR in early August and has since worked his way back into the rookie conversation. Heading to Kansas, Truex – who will drive the No. 20 Toyota – is third, 20 points behind Hill. … Michael Annett will have a special guest at Kansas. Ryan, a nine-year-old patient at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, will spend race day with Annett’s No. 62 team. Earlier this week, Annett visited the hospital and toured the facility. He signed autographs, interacted with the patients and distributed T-shirts. … With the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series in the midst of an open week, James Buescher will compete at Kansas in the NASCAR Nationwide Series race. Before he races, he’ll trade his driving shoes for cleats and work out with Major League Soccer’s Sporting Kansas City club.

Camping World Truck Series: Hornaday Still Believes Fifth Title ‘Is Doable’

Basking in the glow of his milestone 50th NASCAR Camping World Truck Series victory, Ron Hornaday Jr. was only half-joking about still being in contention for a fifth championship with five races remaining in the 2011 season.

“I never say die,” said Hornaday, following his third victory at Kentucky Speedway on Oct. 2. “If they (Kevin Harvick Inc.) give me trucks like tonight, it’s doable.”

Hornaday, in fifth place and 42 points behind leader Austin Dillon, led the most laps in the Kentucky 225. He edged the onrushing Dillon, who had earlier won his fifth Keystone Light Pole of the season, by 0.438 seconds. “He’s the new up-and-coming star and I can say at the age of 53 I beat him,” said Hornaday. Nearly a third of Hornaday‘s wins, 15, have come since the Palmdale, Calif.-competitor turned 50.

Hornaday’s victory was the fifth of the year for crew chief Bruce Cook. Cook, previously a winner with Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer, observed of Hornaday, “It’s insane how he does things sometimes. He’s just that good.”

Cook is the 13th different crew chief to visit Victory Lane with Hornaday. He’s won championships with three: Rick Ren twice and Doug Williams and Fred Graves.

Hornaday’s thoughts on win No. 50?

“It’s going to mean a lot when I hang my helmet up and I’m in my rocking chair on the front porch with my grandchildren,” he said.

NCWTS Leader Dillon Makes NASCAR Sprint Cup Debut In Kansas

Sunday will be a coming-out party for the Dillon family for the second consecutive weekend.

Austin Dillon is due to make his NASCAR Sprint Cup Series debut in the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. He’ll drive a No. 98 Chevrolet prepared by his grandfather’s Richard Childress Racing with ownership by former California Lt. Gov. Mike Curb. The team will be led by Danny Stockman, Dillon’s NCWTS crew chief.

Dillon’s younger brother, 19-year-old Ty Dillon, participated in his first NASCAR national series race at Kentucky Speedway. He finished 18th but ran in the top five with Austin during portions of the Kentucky 225.

Two other NASCAR Camping World Truck title contenders will be busy during this off weekend. James Buescher, who trails Dillon by three points in the standings, will drive a Turner Motorsports entry in Saturday’s NASCAR Nationwide Series Kansas Lottery 300. Buescher, who finished third in Kentucky, will work out with Major League Soccer’s Sporting Kansas City on Thursday and host several team members during Saturday’s race.

Johnny Sauter travels to his native Wisconsin for a pair of Late Model races during the Oct. 8-9 Oktoberfest at LaCrosse Fairgrounds Speedway. Sauter is third in NCWTS standings trailing Dillon by 19 points after finishing 14th at Kentucky Speedway.

Armstrong Nabs Top-10 Finish In Prep For Rookie Campaign

Sunoco Rookie of the Year contender-to-be Dakoda Armstrong didn’t want to start the 2012 season cold, and his strategy – get experience at as many different tracks as possible this year – has begun paying dividends.

The 20-year-old Indiana agriculturalist had no finish higher than 20th in four starts before logging a ninth-place performance at Kentucky Speedway.

“Really it has just been important to get laps and experience because the trucks are so different compared to everything else I’ve run,” said Armstrong, who made his NASCAR Camping World Truck debut at Iowa Speedway in July and also competed at Lucas Oil Raceway, Michigan International Speedway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway. “It’s important for us as a team to keep getting better as well, and the more we run together the better we’ll get.”

Armstrong competed fulltime in ARCA a year ago, winning twice (including Talladega) and finishing seventh in points. He joined ThorSport Racing as a teammate to Sauter and Matt Crafton to compete in trucks.

“The biggest thing for me is getting comfortable with the truck and the team and being able to tell them what I need,” said Armstrong. “With each race we run I feel more confident in knowing what the truck is going to do and how to adjust to make it better.”

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Notes

Next on the schedule is the season’s final stand-alone race Oct. 15 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. … The Smith’s 350 is the season’s fourth and final time behind the wheel of the Kyle Busch Motorsports No. 18 Toyota for Brian Ickler. He scored the year’s second top-five finish in Kentucky, his eighth top 10 with KBM over two seasons. … Winfield Motorsports LLC has announced the hiring of Dennis Connor as director of competition. Connor won three NCWTS championships with Jack Sprague and is No. 2 all time in crew chief victories with 26. The No. 27 team expects to announce its 2012 driver shortly. … Sunoco rookie Nelson Piquet Jr. led 40 laps and finished fourth at Kentucky but continues to trail Joey Coulter and Cole Whitt in freshman standings. Twelve points cover the trio.