Four races remain in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ regular season. These final four events, which ultimately will decide which 12 drivers will race for the championship over the final 10 races, couldn’t look any different.
Up next, on Sunday, there’s the big two-mile Michigan International Speedway oval. On deck awaits the coliseum feel of Bristol Motor Speedway, a fast .533-mile oval most-recently conquered by Kyle Busch. In the hole is the 1.54-mile Atlanta Motor Speedway, often called the fastest track on the circuit. And finally, the cut-off for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, the .75-mile Richmond International Raceway.
After Richmond, the top 10 drivers are locked into the 12-driver Chase. Spots 11 and 12 go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 20.
Last Monday’s race at Watkins Glen International shook up the Wild Card picture a bit. The storylines are piled high after that one, and steamroll into Michigan this weekend.
Chase Clinch scenarios: Four drivers have a mathematical chance of locking up Chase berths. Traditionally, Michigan is the scene of the first driver Chase clinch. Every Chase year (2004-Present) except 2004 and 2006 has seen a driver clinch a spot at Michigan. Kevin Harvick did it last year, and could do it again in 2011.
Leaving this weekend, a clinching driver has to have a 145-point lead over 11th place. Those who can mathematically clinch this weekend: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Harvick. Busch and Edwards are currently 118 points ahead of 11th. Johnson is 112 and Harvick is 104.
Then there’s a Wild Card clinch possibility: If Kyle Busch or Harvick win this weekend, either driver will have four victories, which will lock them into the Chase as at least one of the Wild Card spots.
Wild Card picture became cloudier: Just when a hobbled Brad Keselowski improbably won at Pocono for his second win of the season and put a grapple hold on a Wild Card spot, Marcos Ambrose goes out and makes things a little hazier.
Ambrose nabbed his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory on Monday at Watkins Glen. His 47-point day moved him to 22nd place, a single-point out of the top 20. Ambrose has yet to score a top-10 finish at Michigan, but finished 15th in each of last year’s races there. He was 23rd in last June’s stop.
The current Wild Card holders are Keselowski and Denny Hamlin. Hamlin dipped to 12th in the points standings after his 36th-place finish at Watkins Glen, but still maintains the edge over 15th place Paul Menard (one win, Indianapolis). The Wild Card tie-breaker is points position.
Season of competitive balance continues: A few factoids stemming from Ambrose’s victory: He’s the fifth different first-time winner this season. That’s the most first-time winners since 2002. He also became the 15 different winner this season, the most through 22 races since 2003. The Modern Era record for different winners in a season is 19 in 2001. Considering that there are six drivers who won last year that remain winless in 2011, that record could very well fall.
There are also the weekly on-track records to watch. There have been an average of 13 different leaders per race and an average of 29 lead changes per race – both marks are all-time series highs through 22 races.
With ‘Trap’ Race Behind, Earnhardt’s Chase Chances Brighten
For Dale Earnhardt Jr., this past week has been a case of one down, four to go.
Earnhardt, by his own definition a less-than-skilled road racer, “escaped” Watkins Glen International with a 15th-place finish. It not only solidified his hold on a qualifying berth for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup but boosted him a spot in the standings to ninth.
Earnhardt heads to Michigan International Speedway with a 36-point cushion over 11th-place Clint Bowyer. Only the Pure Michigan 400 and events at Bristol Motor Speedway, Atlanta Motor Speedway and Richmond International Raceway remain before the final 10 Chase qualifiers and Wild Cards are determined.
The best news after avoiding a Watkins Glen “trap” is that Earnhardt’s last victory came at Michigan International Speedway in 2008. He has also won at the other three remaining tracks.
By some measures, Earnhardt’s 2011 season has not been spectacular. But call it solid: he has already matched last year’s top-five finishes (three) and has one more top-10 finish (nine) than 2010’s total.
With a 21st-place finish in Michigan’s spring race, Earnhardt definitely has room for improvement in the Irish Hills. Statistically, however, Earnhardt has done well at MIS with six top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts. He also won a NASCAR Nationwide Series race there in 2006.
There’s also the Steve Letarte factor. Letarte, Jeff Gordon’s former crew chief, fielded a top-five finishing car in three of his last four Michigan races with the four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion. Gordon was second in both Michigan races in 2009.
Three Roush Fenway Drivers Could Use Some Michigan Momentum
Roush Fenway Racing couldn’t be returning to its home track, Michigan International Speedway, at a better time with three of its four teams needing a boost as qualifying for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup heads into its final four races.
Jack Roush has won 11 times at the track west of his Livonia, Mich. headquarters. He shares the track’s all-time win mark with NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee Glen Wood and the Wood Brothers.
Here’s the picture:
• Carl Edwards desperately needs wins. He slipped from an outright hold on the NASCAR Sprint Cup lead at Watkins Glen International, ceding the spot to Kyle Busch, whose three victories (to Edwards’ one) equal nine bonus points when the Chase begins next month at Chicagoland Speedway. Though the two drivers are in a points tie, Busch owns the tie-breaker (victories).
• Greg Biffle, a reliable winner and Chase qualifier over the past three seasons, currently is lacking on both counts. He’s 49 points out of 10th place and needing to pass three rivals. To make the Chase via the Wild Card, Biffle requires at least one win and maybe two over the next four races – and hope those ahead of him remain outside Victory Lane.
• David Ragan appeared to have his ticket punched for a Wild Card after winning at Daytona in July, a victory he followed up with a top-10 finish at Kentucky. An untimely accident on the final lap at Watkins Glen, however, dropped the driver five points outside the top 20 making a solid finish at Michigan a necessity.
Edwards was the last Roush Fenway driver to win at Michigan in August 2008. Current drivers Biffle and Matt Kenseth each have won twice at the track. Kenseth, ranked a solid seventh with two wins overall and six top-10 finishes in his most recent nine starts, seems a lock to challenge for a second NASCAR Sprint Cup title.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Notes
An adopted Michigan son, Desmond Howard, will be the Grand Marshall for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400. The former Michigan Wolverine and current ESPN college football analyst celebrates an anniversary, as does ESPN NASCAR analyst Dale Jarrett. Their careers intertwine in a way – with Joe Gibbs as the common thread. Howard is celebrating the 20th anniversary of winning the Heisman Trophy for the University of Michigan. It’s also the 20th anniversary of Jarrett’s first career NSCS victory in 1991 for the Wood Brothers at Michigan. There’s the ESPN connection between the two, but there’s also this: Howard was selected by Joe Gibbs’ Washington Redskins in the 1992 NFL Draft and played for Gibbs in the final season of his first stint as Redskins coach. Gibbs and Jarrett would team up in 1993 for a Daytona 500 win. … Milestone Watch: Jimmie Johnson will make his 350th start and Kasey Kahne will make his 275th start. … A star was born and continues to shine: Dylan Kwasniewski scored his second consecutive win in NASCAR K&N Pro Series West a week after becoming the youngest winner in the 57-year history of the series. He won again at Montana Raceway Park on Saturday night. While Kwasniewski was capturing his second win, another teenager was already taking away one of his records. Cameron Hayley, who celebrated his 15th birthday on July 21, made his series debut to become the youngest driver to compete in the series. He then went on to finish second to Kwasniewski.
Natonwide Series: Expect The Unexpected Across The Border At Montreal
In the four previous races at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, the 2.710-mile, 14-turn course set on the man-made Isle de Notre Dame just outside Montreal, bizarre and exciting finishes have become the norm.
Last year, Boris Said edged Max Papis in a photo finish for his first series victory. The .012 margin of victory is the sixth-closest in series history and was the third among four races there to have an MOV of under a half second. Said – who created some drama with his post-race scuffle with Greg Biffle at Watkins Glen – returns to Montreal in the No. 30 Chevrolet for Turner Motorsports to defend his win.
Carl Edwards’ win in 2009 came after a race started in dry conditions, then a switch to rain equipment before a finish on a dry track that featured Edwards clearing Marcos Ambrose on the final turn of the last lap. Edwards returns, as does Ambrose, who leads all drivers with two poles and 149 laps led at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Ambrose, driving the No. 9 for Richard Petty Motorsports, has vowed to compete at Montreal until he wins this race.
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Two-time series champion Kevin Harvick won the inaugural event in 2007, but Robby Gordon thought otherwise. Gordon had bumped, then passed Ambrose under caution late in the event and failed to blend back in, bringing out a black flag from NASCAR. Gordon kept pushing through the end of the race and joined Harvick – and Quebec’s Patrick Carpentier – in a donut-fest on the frontstretch. Harvick and Gordon celebrating, thinking each had won the race and Carpentier elated over what he assumed was a second-place finish from the pole. Harvick was declared the winner, Carpentier – who will retire from racing after Saturday’s event – was indeed second and Gordon, still steaming over the result to this day, was relegated to 18th. Gordon will be back this year, too.
Competition Stout With Star-Studded Field In Montreal
Big names will be making the trek north this weekend to Montreal, Canada for one of the most unique events of the season.
Danica Patrick returns to the series this weekend, making her stock-car debut on a road course. This will be her first series race since July at Daytona, where she finished 10th. Another former open-wheel racer, Scott Speed, will make his first series start since 2009, driving the No. 33 Chevrolet for Kevin Harvick Inc.
Double-duty drivers include Marcos Ambrose, Monday’s winner of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Watkins Glen, 2007 series champion Carl Edwards, Robby Gordon and 2011 Daytona 500 champion Trevor Bayne.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. leads the series regulars in the driver standings having posted three Coors Light poles, two wins, 10 top fives and 17 top 10s this season. He’s the lone driver among the top three in the standings – second-place Reed Sorenson (-10) and third-place Elliott Sadler (-24) – who has run at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, finishing 24th last year.
Canadian Drivers Hold Large Presence This Weekend
As the NASCAR Nationwide Series pulls into Montreal this week it will set the stage for nine Canadian drivers to prove their muster amongst the best the series has to offer. Stepping up to the challenge this weekend is Jean Francois Dumoulin, Louis-Phillipe Dumoulin, Ron Fellows, Alex Tagliani, Andrew Ranger, J.R. Fitzpatrick, Maryeve Dufault, Patrick Carpentier and last but not least Jacques Villeneuve. The track bears the name of his late father.
Two of Villeneuve’s three career top-five finishes in the NASCAR Nationwide Series have come at this track. He is stepping into a ride with a lot of momentum this season, the No. 22 Penske Racing Dodge team, which is coming off a victory at Watkins Glen last weekend.
Under the guidance of crew chief Todd Gordon, the former F1 champion Villeneuve will be the fourth different motorsports champion to drive the No. 22 this season, joining 2010 NASCAR Nationwide Series champion Brad Keselowski, IndyCar Series champion Sam Hornish Jr. and NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Kurt Busch.
NASCAR Nationwide Series Notes
There are 49 entries for Montreal, the most in the five-year history of the event. This also is the first time the series’ new car will race at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. … Subs for double-duty drivers, who won’t arrive from Michigan until Saturday, include Michel Jourdain Jr. for Trevor Bayne; Billy Johnson, a Roush-Fenway Racing Grand-Am driver, for Carl Edwards and Owen Kelly, a fellow Tasmanian for Marcos Ambrose. … Owner Steve Meehan has turned his No. 67 Go Canada Racing Ford into an opportunity to drive awareness and raise funds for charitable causes. At Montreal, the hometown No. 67 Go Canada Racing Ford will carry logos for two charities in support of the SickKids Foundation. Meehan is one of two series owners from Canada, joining former driver-turned-owner Randy MacDonald, who has a Canadian driver, Maryeve Dufault, in his No. 81 Dodge this weekend. Dufault will make her series debut. The regular driver of the No. 81, Blake Koch, will be in the No. 70 ML Motorsports Chevrolet. Koch trails Timmy Hill by three points in the Sunoco Rookie of the Year standings.
Camping World Trucks: Michigan Track Perfect Fit For Truck Racing
Eleven seasons of racing at Michigan International Speedway have produced some of the fastest and most competitive moments in NASCAR Camping World Truck Series history.
The 2-mile superspeedway, which hosts Saturday’s 12th Annual VFW 200, accounts for the series’ fastest race, its third-closest finish and the second greatest number of different race leaders.
“There’s always a battle going on, not one truck enters in the same line and they all end up in a straight line coming off. I love it,” said Brendan Gaughan, who won in 2003 at a series-record average speed of 154.044 mph.
Side-by-side finishes have been common in Michigan’s Irish Hills region but none were more thrilling than in 2008. Erik Darnell side-drafted past 2006 VFW 200 winner and Michigan native Johnny Benson to claim victory literally by the leading edge of his Ford’s splitter – a margin of 0.005 seconds.
Michigan International Speedway’s most competitive race was in 2005 when 13 different drivers held point before Dennis Setzer prevailed.
Gaughan and Colin Braun are the only previous winners expected to compete this week although Todd Bodine, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Mark Martin have NASCAR national series victories at the track. Bodine finished second in last year’s race en route to his second series title.
Kligerman Hopes To Find Michigan Victory Lane For Keselowski
Sunoco Rookie of the Year contender Parker Kligerman calls Connecticut home but he’ll be a Michigan home state favorite at least on Saturday as the driver of Brad Keselowski’s Dodge.
Kligerman, who celebrated his 21st birthday last week, is no stranger to the track having won an ARCA race there in 2009. He enters the season’s 15th race ranked third in rookie points and eighth in overall NASCAR Camping World Truck standings. After scoring back-to-back second place finishes earlier this season, Kligerman definitely is a candidate to become the series’ next first-time winner – and, in Michigan, a popular one.
Keselowski, a two-time NASCAR Nationwide Series winner at MIS, is just the latest member of the Rochester Hills, Mich. family to be embraced by Michigan fans.
His father, Bob, is a former ARCA champion and a winner in that series at Michigan in 1992. While the Keselowski family’s K Automotive truck team never was able to win on home turf, drivers Setzer and Terry Cook raced at the front of the field posting top-10 finishes in four consecutive races.
Brad Keselowski, who traveled with, worked on and drove for his family’s NASCAR Camping World Truck team before he was a teen, said fielding a truck “has a natural feel. It would seem weird to have a family in the series since the beginning and not having a (Keselowski) truck in it.”
And that’s fine with Kligerman. “Monday through Friday, Brad’s there at the shop helping us make our trucks faster,” he said.
Series Youth Being Served At Unprecedented Pace In 2011
Once described as a “second chance” opportunity for the sport’s veterans, the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series in 2011 is likewise spotlighting stock car racing’s future.
When Austin Dillon took over the championship lead following the Aug. 6 race at Pocono Raceway, it marked the first time two competitors 21 years of age or younger have topped the points in the same season.
In fact, Dillon, 21 and Cole Whitt, then 19, are the youngest ever to show as series points leaders. Both displaced Kyle Busch, age 22 when he was No. 1 in 2008. Five of the current top 10 in points – including three of the top five – have yet to celebrate their 22nd birthdays.
Travis Kvapil, age 27 in 2003, remains the series’ youngest champion and only competitor to win a NASCAR Camping World Truck title in his 20s.
Dillon also is just the fourth Sunoco Rookie of the Year to lead series standings in his sophomore season. He joins Biffle (1998-99), Gaughan (2002-03) and Carl Edwards (2003-04).
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Notes
Three familiar figures return to series competition this week in Michigan led by 2009 VFW 200 winner Colin Braun. Braun will drive for 20-time series winner Billy Ballew, whose No. 51 Ford will be overseen by Richie Wauters. Wauters’ 17 wins rank sixth all time by crew chiefs. Aric Almirola won last year’s Michigan race in a truck owned by Ballew. … Busch and Harvick renew their owners’ championship rivalry this week. Busch leads by 27 points after finishing second to Harvick at Pocono. … Butch Miller of Coopersville is the only entered Michigan driver. Miller has one series victory in 1995 at Colorado National Speedway.