NASCAR Notebook: New Hampshire Wrote Chase’s Script

How accurately did July’s LENOX Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway preview this year’s Chase field?

Within one position of perfection.

The first nine finishers, led by race-winner Kasey Kahne, all qualified for the Chase as did those 11th through 13th. Finishing behind Kahne in the top five were Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski.

Ryan Newman, New Hampshire’s 2010 July winner and a potential Chase Wild Card down to the checkered flag earlier this month in Richmond, was the only odd man out, finishing 10th.

It’s certainly an intriguing set-up for Sunday’s return engagement at the 1.058-mile track and the second round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

July’s victory, his second of the year after a lackluster start in the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, effectively punched Kahne’s Chase ticket. With a third-place finish a week ago in Chicago, Kahne is making the most of his first post-season trip since 2009.

He’s fifth in the standings, one of a trio of competitors 15 points behind Chase leader Keselowski. Top seed Hamlin is fourth; Bowyer ranks sixth.

Kahne is one of eight Chase qualifiers with New Hampshire victories. Tony Stewart, last year’s Sylvania 300 winner, has won three times as have Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Bowyer won twice, with Hamlin, Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick one-race winners at NHMS.

The New Hampshire Chase race winner has gone on to claim the championship twice: Stewart a year ago and Kurt Busch in 2004. The Sylvania 300 was the post-season’s opener from 2004 to 2010.

Statistically, here are four drivers to watch in New Hampshire:

•    Stewart has the top Driver Rating (112.0) and 14 top fives in 27 starts.
•    Gordon leads in top fives (15) and top 10s (20) with a 109.3 Driver Rating.
•    Johnson is third in Driver Rating (105.1) and second in average finish (9.9).
•    Hamlin ranks fourth in Driver Rating (101.4) and boasts a best average finish of 8.5.

Current Chase competitors have won four of the past five races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Kahne, Stewart, Bowyer (fall 2010) and Johnson (summer 2010).

One Race Elevates Keselowski From Contender To Favorite

Brad Keselowski may be the least-experienced driver in this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. And last Sunday’s GEICO 400, which Keselowski won, was only the first of 10 rounds of the post season.

But make no mistake. How he won – and whom he defeated, five-time champion Jimmie Johnson – elevated the 28-year-old Michigan native from title contender to a favorite’s role.

The race had all the earmarks of a classic Johnson victory: A start from the Coors Light Pole, most laps led (172 of 267) and a seemingly perfect final pit stop.

Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe, however, did Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus one better. The No. 2 Penske Racing Dodge’s last service was even quicker, which set up a pass of Johnson’s No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet on Keselowski’s out lap.

He then pulled away to win by more than three seconds.

Keselowski’s lead isn’t much, three points over Johnson and eight better than three-time and defending champion Tony Stewart. And the winner of the season’s first race has gone on to become champion just twice – Stewart a year ago and Kurt Busch in 2004. Yet it shouldn’t be a complete surprise.

Keselowski’s three regular season victories matched the output of Johnson and Stewart. And he had momentum going into the Chase, scoring the most points of any competitor during previous 10 races.

He also finished a solid fifth in the overall standings a year ago after having qualified for his first Chase as a Wild Card. Keselowski now has won eight times in 116 NASCAR Sprint Cup starts.

Johnson isn’t on top – yet. He’s won the second race of the Chase three times, in 2005 and 2009-10. The last two years were championship seasons.

And Stewart? Lurking following a sixth-place Chicagoland finish after starting 29th.

No Quit For Gordon Despite Chicagoland Hiccup

Don’t count out Jeff Gordon quite yet.

Gordon, who squeezed into the Chase by the thinnest of margins as the No. 2 Wild Card, had nowhere to go but up in Chicago. A throttle malfunction and an excursion into the outside SAFER barrier ended a likely top-five finish well short of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet team’s goal.

The four-time champion, still 12th of 12 in Chase standings, now looks at a 47-point deficit with just nine races to go.

Time to throw in the towel? The math, according to Gordon, says no.

Two months ago, Gordon and company went to New Hampshire Motor Speedway mired in the season’s biggest hole – 191 points out of the point lead. Six top-10 finishes in the next eight races netted 54 points on the No. 1 position. It can be done, although Gordon will need help from his rivals.

“Recently, we have led laps, run well and been in position to win,” said Gordon. “We just need to put ourselves in that position again – and capitalize on it.”

Gordon wasn’t the only driver to stumble out of the gate. No. 1 seed Denny Hamlin and regular season points leader Greg Biffle each dropped three positions – Hamlin to fourth, Biffle to eighth. Hamlin, like Gordon, was a solid top-10 performance throughout the GEICO 400 but ran out of fuel on the final lap.

Hamlin’s three-point pre-Chase lead is now a 15-point deficit while Biffle is 19 back.

Daytona 500 winner and 2003 Sprint Cup champion Matt Kenseth also took a points hit in the Chase opener. Kenseth, also a standings leader during the regular season, is 26 points out in 11th after a broken shock relegated his No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing Ford to a Chicagoland finish of 18th.

To help the above drivers breathe a little easier, a poor Chase opener historically doesn’t always spell doom. Jimmie Johnson twice finished outside the top 20 and went on to win the title. In 2006, he finished 39th in the first Chase race; in 2010, he finished 25th.

It’s Not How You Start

Below is each Chase champion’s points position after the first Chase race:

Year        Champion           Pnt Pos.
2004        Kurt Busch               2
2005        Tony Stewart            1
2006        Jimmie Johnson       9
2007        Jimmie Johnson       1
2008        Jimmie Johnson       2
2009        Jimmie Johnson       2
2010        Jimmie Johnson       7
2011        Tony Stewart             2

Spoil Sport: Newman Hopes To Play Upset Role

A year has passed since Ryan Newman turned the fastest lap during a Coors Light Pole session. That’s 35 races that have come and gone since the Rocket Man won a pole – the third-longest pole drought of Newman’s career. His longest stretch between poles came across the 2010 and 2011 seasons, when he went 41 races without one. Coincidentally, that drought ended with a pole in New Hampshire’s first race of 2011.

Newman’s last pole came at New Hampshire Motor Speedway during last year’s Chase (he finished 25th that race). If he can duplicate that qualifying effort, Newman will become the ninth driver in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history with 50 career Coors Light Poles.

And if he can win the race, he’ll join a short list of “Chase spoilers” – non-Chase drivers who win a Chase race. Not surprisingly, a “spoil” is rare.
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Last year, only two spoilers nabbed victory from championship contenders – Clint Bowyer at Talladega and Kasey Kahne at Phoenix. Both drivers qualified for this year’s Chase.

In all, only 15 of the previous 81 Chase races have been won by a driver not Chase-eligible.

Arguably, Newman ranks as the top candidate to play spoiler this weekend. He won the July New Hampshire race last season, and has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six races – including 10th in the series’ first NHMS stop this season.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Notes

Brian Vickers makes his return to the series this weekend, hopping back into the No. 55 Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing primarily driven by Mark Martin. Vickers has three top fives in six starts this season, including a fourth at Bristol in his last start four races ago. … There will be a true home-track advantage for the No. 32 FAS Lane Racing Ford team on Sunday. Driver Mike Olsen and crew chief/owner Frank Stoddard, who grew up together in North Haverhill, N.H., will team up for the first time in NASCAR’s premier series this weekend at the Magic Mile. Olsen, who won the NASCAR K&N Pro Series East championships in 2001 and 2006, will make his NASCAR Sprint Cup Series debut. … Major milestones are on the horizon for two NASCAR mainstays, Joe Gibbs Racing and Chevrolet. JGR’s next victory will be No. 100 in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competition. Chevrolet is two wins away from 700 NASCAR Sprint Cup victories. … Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s eight-place finish at Chicagoland on Sunday pushed his season total to 18 top 10s, his highest figure since 2004 (21). … Jamie McMurray’s last top-10 finish was at Pocono Raceway in June. His next top 10 will be No. 100. He has four top 10s in 19 starts at New Hampshire. … Juan Pablo Montoya needs 14 more laps led to reach 1,000 career NSCS laps led.

Nationwide Series: Series Comeback Kid Stenhouse Does It Again

In championship fashion, last weekend Ricky Stenhouse Jr. not only won the NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Chicagoland Speedway, he also took the standings lead. In the last five races, Stenhouse has accumulated 31 more points than Elliott Sadler and as a result, Stenhouse not only has closed the 22-point deficit he had leaving Montreal, he has also shot out front by nine points ahead with just seven races to go.

Following Chicago, Sadler sits second in the points as the series heads to Kentucky, where he has a slightly better average finish (7.0) than standings leader Stenhouse (8.6). But Stenhouse betters him in all the major pre-race Loop Data categories: Driver Rating – Stenhouse (103.9), Sadler (99.8); Average Running Position – Stenhouse (8.5), Sadler (9.1); and Percentage of Laps in Top 15 – Stenhouse (93.2%), Sadler (93.0%). Stenhouse has made three starts, posting three top 10s, and Sadler has made two starts at Kentucky, posting one top five and two top 10s.

Stenhouse and the No. 6 team, with crew chief Mike Kelley, seem focused on becoming the sixth team in series history to repeat as series champions.  But this time around, Stenhouse has been adamant about getting the unified owner and driver championships for Roush Fenway Racing.

Last season, Stenhouse won the driver title but split the spoils with teammate Carl Edwards and the No. 60 team after they locked up the owners’ title. This season, unification is the idea, and right now Jack Roush’s No. 6 team is just four points behind Joe Gibbs’ No. 18 team in the owner standings.

JGR has the most series wins (three) by an organization at Kentucky but all were in the No. 20 car, not the No. 18. Roush has one series win at Kentucky with the No. 60 team.

JR Motorsports Taking A New Approach

When Danica Patrick hits the track this Saturday for the Kentucky 300, she’ll have a new crew chief atop the war wagon.

“Unfortunately, Tony Jr. is no longer with the company. I had hoped he would be here for a long time, but as we’ve discussed the direction of JR Motorsports moving forward, it was clear our differences in ideas were too vast to overcome,” said team owner Dale Earnhardt Jr. in a statement on Monday.

Ryan Pemberton, recently hired as the company’s Director of Competition, will take over as Patrick’s crew chief. In 16 NSCS seasons as a crew chief, Pemberton has two victories in 555 starts.

Patrick is currently in 11th place (16 points outside the top 10). Her JR Motorsports’ teammate Cole Whitt sits in seventh (-215).

Dillon Measures Up Against Past Rookies

Only four times before has a Sunoco rookie finished second or third in the NNS final standings. Austin Dillon is in position to become the fifth driver to accomplish this, or perhaps, finish first – something a rookie has never done.

With just seven races left, Dillon sits only 34 and 25 points behind Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Elliott Sadler, respectively.

In 26 races, Dillon has one win (Kentucky) and 13 top-five and 20 top-10 finishes. If Dillon overtook Stenhouse and Sadler in points to win the championship, he would become the first driver to win the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and NNS championships in consecutive seasons.

Kyle Busch finished in second place in 2004, his rookie season, with five wins and 16 top-five and 22 top-10 finishes.

Steve Park, Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards all finished their rookie seasons in third. In 1997, Park had three wins, 12 top fives and 20 top 10s. Harvick finished the 2000 season with three wins and eight top-five and 16 top-10 finishes. In 2005, Edwards won five races and grabbed 15 top fives and 21 top 10s.

NASCAR Nationwide Series Notes

Four drivers will pull double duty this weekend in the NSCS and NNS races: Sam Hornish Jr., Kurt Busch, Scott Riggs, and Joe Nemechek. Former series champion (’92) Nemechek is turning heads this year with his family owned race team NEMCO Motorsports. He currently sits ninth in the championship standings despite missing Road America. The Florida native goes to the Kentucky 300 fresh off four straight finishes of 16th or better. … Three drivers will pull double duty in the NNS and NCWTS races at Kentucky: Brian Scott, James Buescher and Ryan Blaney. Blaney became the youngest winner in NCWTS history last weekend at Iowa. … Milestone Watch:  Stenhouse will attempt to make his 100th series start and Scott Lagasse Jr., who returns to the series in his family owned No. 8 car, will attempt his 50th series start. … Retired military working dog Sgt. Beyco, United States Marine Corps (USMC) MP H100, will accompany her handler, Vietnam War veteran Joe Sturm, to deliver the command to fire engines for the Kentucky 300. Sgt. Beyco earned eight medals, including the Combat Action Ribbon, during eight years of service that included a three-year tour in Iraq.

Camping World Trucks: Six NCWTS Champions Minted In The Bluegrass State

For the second consecutive week, the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series returns to a track on which teams previously competed in 2012. History says Kentucky Speedway and Friday night’s Kentucky 201 could be pivotal in naming this year’s championship.

In six different seasons, a Kentucky winner has gone on to become the champion – most recently Todd Bodine in 2010. Greg Biffle (2000), Mike Bliss (2002), Bobby Hamilton (2004), Johnny Benson (2008) and Ron Hornaday Jr. (2009) also share the distinction.

That might put June’s Kentucky winner James Buescher in the driver’s seat, especially if the third-place driver in the current standings can score a season sweep at the 1.5-mile track. Buescher is the season’s only three-time winner with each of the victories coming on an intermediate track. He finished third in his most recent foray at 1.54-mile Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Ty Dillon, who took over sole possession of the championship lead last weekend at Iowa Speedway, finished third in June. Dillon, second in Iowa, holds an eight-point lead over Timothy Peters, the standings leader since Kentucky in June. Peters placed fifth in that race and is still looking for his first intermediate track victory.

With seven races remaining, Buescher is 11 points off the lead followed by Parker Kligerman, who won the Keystone Light Pole in Iowa and led 107 laps before finishing 23rd. Matt Crafton completes the current top five.

Blaney Doubles Down After Record-Setting Victory

One record matched. And another set. Ryan Blaney became the season’s seventh different first-time winner at Iowa Speedway, tying the record for first-time winners in a season that was established in 1997 and matched the following year.

Blaney, whose father Dave Blaney competes in the NSCS for Tommy Baldwin, becomes the series’ youngest winner at age 18 years, eight months, 15 days. Kyle Busch was age 20 years, 18 days when he won at Charlotte Motor Speedway in 2005.

Both the elder Blaney and Ryan’s mother, Lisa, were on hand for their son’s signal event. The victory also was the first (in 63 starts) for Brad Keselowski Racing, whose No. 29 RAM will be piloted by Blaney for the remainder of the season.

Blaney can’t wait to get to Kentucky, where he’ll also drive Penske Racing’s No. 22 Dodge in the companion NASCAR Nationwide Series Kentucky 300.

“As a driver, confidence is really important in driving race cars and your confidence level is just sky high when you win the week before,” said Blaney. “I think it’s just always an added bonus being the winner the previous week and everyone always looks out for you.”

Four Previous Winners Ready For Kentucky Return

Kentucky Speedway’s list of winners is much like that of the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series in 2012. The Sparta, KY, facility has crowned 12 different winners in 14 races. Blaney became the series’ 12th different winner in the 15th race of this year’s schedule of 22.

Only one competitor has won more than once in Kentucky – Hornaday, whose third victory at the 1.5-mile track was his record 50th in the series. He also won in 2006 and 2009. Hornaday is winless so far this season. He finished ninth in June’s UNOH 225.

Hornaday is one of four Kentucky winners expected to compete in Friday’s race. Buescher won June’s race and looks for win No. 4 on the season as well as the championship lead.

Also in the field is 2010 winner Todd Bodine, a two-time NCWTS champion. Bodine’s only victory in the No. 11 Red Horse Racing Toyota came at Dover. The 48-year-old New York native finished third in Iowa, his best performance since Dover. Bodine also has an NNS victory at Kentucky.

Dennis Setzer, whose 2008 Martinsville victory was the last by a RAM truck before Blaney won in Iowa, also is entered. Setzer won in Kentucky in 2005.

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Notes

Dakoda Armstrong, who left ThorSport Racing after Atlanta, returns to the series in Turner Motorsports’ No. 4 Chevrolet. … Brian Scott makes his third start of the season in the Kyle Busch Motorsports No. 18 Toyota. … David Mayhew hopes to better an Iowa finish of 16th in BKR’s No. 19 RAM. … Max Gresham will make his second start of the season at the wheel of Eddie Sharp Racing’s No. 8 Chevrolet. The Griffin, GA, driver finished 22nd in his last outing at Atlanta Motor Speedway. … Daytona winner John King will be back in the series this week driving the No. 5 Wauters Racing Ford.