NASCAR Notebook: Chase Urgency Hits Boiling Point

RICHMOND, VA – A numbers game will play out under the lights at Richmond International Raceway on Saturday night.

There will be winners. And losers. With way more hopes popped than champagne bottles. But for the few who do earn a spot in this thrilling new playoff – the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup – they know this: After a grueling 26-race regular season … they have earned it.

That numbers game? To start with…

14: That’s the number of drivers who are locked into the Chase (and, come Friday at 5:45 p.m. when they qualify, it will be official). Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth added their names to the clinched list at Atlanta.

Two: The number of Chase spots remaining.

19: The number of drivers not locked in who remain in mathematical contention for those two spots. Two of those – Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle – control their own destiny in some shape or form. Two others – Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson – can earn a spot without a win, though it’ll be tough. Fifteen others can only earn a Chase spot with a victory (13 of those are win-and-in propositions).

Let’s take a look at some of the drivers vying for the final spot…

Larson’s Last Chance

If Kyle Larson didn’t win in Atlanta, he needed either Clint Bowyer or Greg Biffle to implode to put him in position to make the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup via points.

It looked like Larson caught his lucky break in the Oral-B USA 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway when Bowyer was forced into the garage early. But his luck disappeared when winless driver Kasey Kahne blew past Matt Kenseth on the final restart to seize his first victory of the season and clinch a spot in the Chase.

“So happy for Kasey,” said Larson of the fellow Chevrolet driver. “But that pretty much ends our Chase hopes, unless we win.”

Going into the final race at Richmond, Larson sits 18th on the Chase Grid, trailing Biffle by 24 points for the final Chase spot and Bowyer by one point for the 17th position. So, though he can mathematically land a Chase spot without a win, it’s unlikely.

Larson said it best. Unless Biffle completely collapses, his only hope of getting into the Chase is by winning Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

In his lone NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start at Richmond earlier this season, Larson finished 16th after winning the pole. The 22-year-old rookie, known as “The Phenom,” owns one top-five and two top-10 NASCAR Nationwide Series finishes there.

By pulling off the victory on Saturday night, he would become just the second rookie ever to make the Chase. The only driver to pull off the feat was Denny Hamlin in 2006.

Bowyer In Virtual Must-Win Situation At Richmond

The nightmare scenario unfolded for Clint Bowyer in Sunday night’s Oral-B USA 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Entering the race a comfortable 31 points above the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup cutoff line in the 15th position on the grid, Bowyer seemed to be safely in the series’ postseason. Eighty laps into the race, things took a turn for the worse. Bowyer’s shifter broke on the 80th lap, causing him to finish 38th, and Kasey Kahne clinched the checkered flag, eliminating a Chase spot for winless drivers. By the end of the night, Bowyer plummeted to 17th on the Chase grid, 23 points below Greg Biffle for the final spot.

“It seems like if it weren’t for bad luck, we wouldn’t have any luck,” Bowyer said. “We’ve been good at Richmond but we are going to have to have a really good finish, if not a win, to make it into the Chase.”

Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway could not come at a better time for Bowyer. Barring a minor miracle, he needs to win to get into the Chase and Richmond is a place where he’s a proven victor. Arguably his best track, Bowyer boasts two wins, three top fives and nine top 10s at the .75-mile, D-shaped course

Biffle In Good Shape For Chase Bid

A little over a month ago, Greg Biffle’s chances of making the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup were looking shaky at best. He ranked 19th on the Chase grid following Indianapolis and faced added pressure to perform after it was announced Carl Edwards would leave Roush Fenway Racing.

Since then, Biffle has been a model of consistency, stringing together five consecutive top-10 finishes to thrust himself into the 16th and final spot on the grid with a cushy 23-point lead over Clint Bowyer entering the final regular season race at Michigan.
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If there is a repeat victor, or if Matt Kenseth or Ryan Newman wins, Biffle is guaranteed a spot in the Chase if he finishes 22nd or better, 23rd with at least one lap led, or 24th and the most laps led. If there is a new winner – other than Kenseth or Newman – Biffle needs to beat Newman by 19 points and stay ahead of Bowyer and Kyle Larson. A new winner would be a nightmare scenario for Biffle. Unless, of course, Biffle is that new winner.

Biffle won’t be resting easy. Although 10 of the previous 12 races entering Atlanta were won by repeat winners, Kasey Kahne proved how unpredictable this season has become.
Furthermore, Bowyer showed that a collapse can happen when his 31-point hold on the Chase’s 15th spot turned into a 23-point deficit with him on the outside looking in

Richmond hasn’t been too kind to Biffle either. In 24 starts in Virginia’s capital, Biffle has produced just two top fives and an average finish of 16.9.

If Biffle survives, he would make the Chase for the sixth time in seven years.

Newman Nearly Locked Into Chase

Ryan Newman controls his Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup destiny no matter who wins at Richmond.

If there is a repeat winner – or a Matt Kenseth victory – Newman is guaranteed a spot in the Chase as long as he finishes 41st or better, 42nd with at least one lap led, or 43rd with the most laps led.

Conversely, if there is a new winner that is not Kenseth, Newman can fulfill his Chase aspirations with a finish of 18th or better, 19th with at least one lap led; or 20th with the most laps led. He can finish lower as long as he holds his current points ranking among winless drivers.

The No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet driver has put himself in position to clinch by posting two top-five and nine top-10 performances this season, combined with just two finishes worse than 30th.

Even though he made himself a near-lock to make the Chase with his seventh-place finish at Atlanta, Newman was not satisfied.

“It was a good day, just not the day we needed it to be,” Neman said. “I like Richmond, but right now I am not sure what we need to do to lock ourselves in. We are close, it should be a lot of fun.”

Newman has one victory to go along with six top-five and 15 top-10 finishes at Richmond. In recent years, he has been solid yet unspectacular there with six top-15 performances, but just one within the top-five – a third place finish in last season’s regular season finale.

NASCAR Nationwide Series: Dillon Needs Wins To Catch Elliott

Daunting might be the term used when describing Richard Childress Racing driver Ty Dillon’s 35 point deficit from the standings leader Chase Elliott, but it’s not unattainable.

Dillon, currently third in the NASCAR Nationwide Series standings, has reached a point in the season where top-10 finishes might not be enough. He has posted one win (Indianapolis), four top fives, 17 top 10s and an average finish of 9.4 this season. Consistency hasn’t been the problem for Dillon who has zero DNFs; it’s racking up wins.

The man he chases in the standings is Chase Elliott who has posted three wins (Texas, Darlington and Chicago), 11 top fives and 18 top 10s. His average finish is 8.4 in 2014.

Of the next nine tracks the series visits, seven are return trips for the series. Experience can make the difference. Among the seven tracks NASCAR will be returning to, Dillon out-placed Elliott at two of them (Charlotte and Kentucky).

Dillon struggled at Richmond earlier this season finishing 14th, but don’t count him out, Richard Childress Racing has the second most series wins at RIR with six behind Roush Fenway Racing’s nine.

NASCAR Camping World Trucks: Crafton Can Make Move At 1.5-Mile Tracks

Defending NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Champion Matt Crafton sits in second place in the driver standings – lurking seven points behind his ThorSport teammate Johnny Sauter – in prime position to make a move.

Next Friday’s Lucas Oil 225 at Chicagoland Speedway presents an ample opportunity for Crafton to strike in his final push towards a repeat. The tri-oval speedway in the Chicago suburb of Joliet, Illinois spans 1.5 miles, a distance that has treated Crafton well this season. In three of his four starts on 1.5-milers, Crafton boasts one victory (Texas) and two second-place finishes (Kansas and Charlotte). His one finish outside the top-five: Kentucky, where he posted a sixth-place performance.

Not that he’s dropped off much, but Crafton seems to be regaining his early-season form when he registered a pair of wins and second-place finishes in the first six races. In three events since finishing 14th at Pocono, he has posted two top fives and a sixth-place effort. A contender to win every week, he leads series regulars in average running position (7.018), ranks tied for the top spot in victories (two) and claims the second-best driver rating (103.1).