All the laps (10,383 so far in 2011), all the miles (13,836.24 of them), all the tracks (22 so far, 23 after this weekend) and all the drivers (81 have started at least one race in 2011) have brought us to this point – a championship showdown that has been whittled down to two drivers and three points going into the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ 36th and final race of 2011.
Rarely – as in twice in the past three-plus decades – does the championship battle get closer than this. NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader Carl Edwards holds a scant three-point advantage over second-place Tony Stewart. Under the previous points system, three points roughly translates to 13 points, making this the third-closest margin between first and second going into the final race since the inception of the position-based points structure in 1975. In 1979, Darrell Waltrip held a two-point advantage over Richard Petty. And in 1990, Dale Earnhardt led by six points over Mark Martin heading into the finale.
A unique situation could unfold in Sunday’s Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami speedway – a walk-off win.
If Edwards wins on Sunday, he’s the 2011 champion. If Stewart wins, he’s the champion for the third time in his career. For Edwards, he needs only to finish ahead of Stewart to clinch. For Stewart, he needs only to tie Edwards to clinch. (Stewart owns the tie-breaker, with four wins to Edwards’ one).
A closer look at the two contenders going into the final race in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup…
Carl Edwards
A picture of consistency, Edwards owns series-best numbers in top fives (18) and top 10s (25). But the reason he owns the points lead: his win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway earlier this season. Both Edwards and Stewart have scored the exact same amount of points over the first nine Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup races (356), but Edwards holds his three-point edge thanks to the three Chase bonus points he earned for his win at Las Vegas.
If Edwards holds on to his lead, he’ll join Bobby Labonte as the only two drivers to win both the NASCAR Nationwide Series and NASCAR Sprint Cup championships.
History is on his side. There have been only three season-finale comebacks since 1975. In 1979, Petty overcame the aforementioned two-point deficit to overtake Waltrip; in 1992, Alan Kulwicki erased Davey Allison’s 30-point lead in the finale; and last season, Jimmie Johnson trailed Denny Hamlin by 15 points, but came back to win his fifth consecutive championship.
Another reason for optimism: His success rate at Homestead is practically unmatched. He has two wins, four top fives and six top 10s in seven Homestead starts. He owns the top average finish (5.7) and the top Driver Rating (117.5). He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since his first visit to the track, a 14th-place run in 2004.
An Edwards championship would be the third for Roush Fenway Racing, following its title with Matt Kenseth in 2003 and Kurt Busch in 2004.
Tony Stewart
A third championship in 2011 would put Stewart on another NASCAR prominence level, historically speaking. Here are the names of those drivers with three series championships: David Pearson, Cale Yarborough, Lee Petty and Darrell Waltrip. All are either in the NASCAR Hall of Fame or will be inducted in January.
Stewart already boasts this unique statistic: He’s the only driver to win a series championship under the Chase (2005) and pre-Chase (2002) formats. Now he looks to add another unique accolade, that of driver-owner champion. The last driver-owner to win a series championship was Alan Kulwicki in 1992.
At Homestead, Stewart has two wins, three top fives and six top 10s in 12 starts. His two wins came in the first two races at Homestead, in 1999 and 2000.
End Of An Era: Johnson’s Incredible Reign Comes To An End
In 2006, Jimmie Johnson finished outside the top 10 four times during the 10-race Chase. Still, he overcame those stumbles to win his first NASCAR Sprint Cup championship.
At Phoenix last Sunday, Johnson suffered his fifth finish outside the top 10 in this year’s Chase. That’s an all-time Chase high for the best playoff driver in history and proved too much to overcome. It also signaled the end of an era. Now sitting 68 points out of the lead going into the season finale, Johnson has officially been eliminated from championship contention.
His unprecedented – and unbelievable – streak of five consecutive championships is now over.
During his title-winning dynasty, from 2006-2010, Johnson captured 35 of his 55 career victories. He won in all manners, with his last arguably his most impressive – erasing a 15-point deficit in the final race to overtake Denny Hamlin at Homestead.
So now what? Pride, in the form of a top-five championship finish, is on the line. Since Johnson joined the series fulltime in 2002, he has finished in the top five each season. That streak is teetering. He currently sits fifth in points, but is only two points ahead of sixth-place Matt Kenseth going into Homestead.
Champion’s Week Game Of Musical Chairs Ends At Homestead
Sunday’s Ford 400 has a singular meaning – the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship – to contenders Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.
For 10 other qualifiers for this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, the season’s 36th race offers different goals: personal and team pride and momentum toward 2012. And not to get lost in the South Florida shuffle, a coveted spot on stage for the Dec. 2 Champion’s Week Awards Banquet at the Wynn Resort in Las Vegas.
Homestead-Miami Speedway offers a high-speed game of musical chairs for Las Vegas. Twelve have qualified for the Chase but only 10 finalists will get an on-stage invitation. With 10 points spanning positions eight through 11, the VIP list hardly is set.
Denny Hamlin is the “on the bubble” in 10th place but only two points up on Jeff Gordon. Although he’s 25 points further back – the equivalent of about half a race – four-race winner Kyle Busch certainly hasn’t been eliminated.
Hamlin, of course, likely is looking forward. He’s five points behind rivals Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman, who have scored an identical 2,252 points. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 10 points ahead of Hamlin in seventh place.
Place In 54th Daytona 500 Race At Stake In Ford 400
Three months hence, the green flag waves on the 54th Annual Daytona 500, but the race for a guaranteed starting position in the Great American Race ends this week at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The final top 35 teams in owners’ championship points will breathe easier during the off season knowing they’ll participate on 2012’s largest stage.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Notes
At Phoenix, Kasey Kahne became the 18th different winner of 2011, one short of matching the NASCAR Sprint Cup record for different winners in a season. A possible favorite to be No. 19: Greg Biffle, who boasts a series-high three wins at Homestead. … Gordon is among three entered drivers having run all 12 previous races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The 1.5-mile speedway is one of just two (Kentucky Speedway) where the four-time champion has yet to score a victory, Gordon’s best performance there being a third in 2004. … Mark Martin’s final start for Hendrick Motorsports will be his 830th, giving him sole possession of fifth on the all-time series starts list. Hendrick Motorsports continues to seek its 200th series victory. … By starting Sunday’s Ford 400, Kurt Busch will become the 48th driver to make 400 series starts. … Jimmie Johnson is without a Coors Light Pole in 2011, endangering a nine-season run of at least one pole extending to the 2002 season. A pole this week would match Buck Baker and Geoffrey Bodine for the series’ 10th-longest streak. … Ryan Newman continues his quest for his 50th career pole, making him the ninth to reach that plateau. … The Ford 400 has been won nine of 12 times from a top-10 starting position and twice from the pole (Bill Elliott 2001, Kurt Busch 2002).
Nationwide Series: Two Championships To Be Decided at Season Finale
After 33 competitive races, at 24 different world-class venues that included an international track, two NASCAR Nationwide Series championships are on the line as the NASCAR Nationwide Series heads to South Florida for the Ford 300 on Saturday, Nov. 19.
Roush Fenway Racing’s No. 60 team is a scant one point behind Joe Gibbs Racing’s No. 18 team in the NASCAR Nationwide Series owner championship standings. Only one finish guarantees the No. 18 a championship – a victory on Saturday. Both teams have eight wins, but the No. 60 has nine second-place finishes (the No. 18 has five) – giving the No. 60 the tie-breaker.
Joe Gibbs has tasked Denny Hamlin with driving the No. 18 Toyota and holding off Carl Edwards, who will drive Jack Roush’s No. 60 Ford. JGR would set a new series record if it is able to capture its fourth consecutive owner title.
Edwards and the No. 60 team won at Homestead in 2008, but JGR’s No. 18 team have been stellar at Homestead the last three seasons finishing second in 2008 and winning in 2009 and 2010 with Kyle Busch behind the wheel. Hamlin has made five series starts at Homestead, posting two top fives and three top 10s. Hamlin has an average finish of 13.2 at Homestead while Edwards has an average finish of 5.7.
While the owner championship has grown tighter, the driver championship opened up last Saturday at Phoenix, Roush Fenway Racing’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr. leads second-place Elliott Sadler by 41 points. Stenhouse has the opportunity to clinch the NASCAR Nationwide Series driver championship with a finish of 37th or better; or 38th or better with at least one lap led; or 39th or better with most laps led at Homestead.
Though the stats favor Stenhouse, Sadler isn’t conceding the trophy. Anything can happen, as evidenced by Stenhouse’s 38th-place finish earlier this season at Talladega and three other results of 38th or worse in 72 career series starts.
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Championships Not The Only Story at Homestead-Miami Speedway
With one race left on the docket, it is no surprise a lot of the teams are already beginning to look toward next season. But while some are looking ahead, others are trying to end 2011 on a positive note.
The series all-time starts leader, Kenny Wallace, currently sits seventh in the standings. If he can stand pat, this will be his best points finish since he was seventh in 2005.
But Wallace has work to do. Michael Annett, after last week’s top-10 finish at Phoenix, moved from 10th to eighth in the standings, 34 points behind Wallace in seventh.
In 11th place is Trevor Bayne. The 2011 Daytona 500 champion has had a roller-coaster season. Bayne, 20, ran the first eight races, posting one top five and five top 10s, and was fifth in the driver standings. Then he suddenly was sidelined for six races because of health issues. The absence from the series dropped him from fifth to 16th – 56 points out of 10th place.
Despite his championship hopes for the season being dashed, Bayne returned to the series after being cleared by doctors, and did so in impressive fashion. In his series return, he finished third at Chicago, then went on to post three top-five and eight top-10 finishes.
The culmination of Bayne’s comeback came at Texas when he claimed his first career series victory in the NASCAR Nationwide Series.
Rookie Of Year Standings Get Hot In South Florida
White sandy beaches, warm sun and a season finale to remember await Sunoco Rookie of the Year contenders Timmy Hill and Blake Koch.
Rookie standings leader Ryan Truex will not be participating this weekend, which leaves the door wide open for Hill and Koch to perform well and make a run at Truex’s lead. Truex (188) holds a three-point lead over second-place Hill and third-place Koch, a West Palm Beach native, who both have 185 points.
Though Truex does lead the standings but isn’t in the season finale doesn’t mean he can’t retain the honors.
NASCAR Nationwide Notes
Along with Turner Motorsport’s driver James Buescher, Brazilian native and former F1 driver Nelson Piquet Jr. will be running double-duty in both the NCWTS and NNS races this weekend at Homestead. … Milestone Watch: Danica Patrick will attempt to make her 25th series start, Joe Nemechek will attempt to post his 75th top-five and 125th top-10 series finish and Justin Allgaier will attempt to post his 50th top-10 series finish. … MAKE Motorsports owners Mark Beaver and Tracy Lowe will run a special paint scheme on the No. 50 car as a tribute to Staff Sgt. Christopher Newman. He was killed in a suicide-bomb raid on a bus in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Oct. 29, 2011. … As part of the ‘ExtenZe Local Hero’ program, Kevin Conway is stepping up to assist the Miami-Dade Police Department in the unsolved homicide case of Coral Gables Police Officer Walter Stathers. Conway’s No. 87 ExtenZe Toyota will carry an image of Officer Stathers along with MDPD contact information.
Camping World Trucks: Dillon Controls Championship Destiny In South Florida Finale
Twenty-four races down and three competitors are still standing – the largest championship contingent entering a NASCAR Camping World Truck Series finale since 2003.
The title is 21-year-old Austin Dillon’s to control. He holds a 20-point advantage over Johnny Sauter and leads James Buescher by 28. Ron Hornaday Jr. is 48 points behind and will be eliminated when Dillon takes the green flag in South Florida.
Dillon guarantees himself his first championship by finishing 16th or better; or 17th or better with at least one lap led; or 18th or better with the most laps led in Friday night’s Ford 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Dillon – or Buescher, also 21 – would become the youngest champion in the series’ 17 seasons. Travis Kvapil, winner of the 2003 championship in a four-way, final-race battle with Brendan Gaughan, Ted Musgrave and Dennis Setzer, was 27 years old.
The grandson of Richard Childress, Dillon would be the second champion to sit in RCR’s black No. 3 Chevrolet. Skinner became the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series’ first titleholder in 1995, edging Joe Ruttman by 127 points.
Here’s what the contenders are saying:
•Dillon, who would become the first to win a championship and rookie of the year in consecutive seasons: “The pressure isn’t too bad, actually. I know we have a great truck and I have a very capable team. We know we are capable of doing what we need to do there.”
•Sauter, 10 times the points leader: “All you can ask for is a shot and I’m privileged right now. That’s the coolest thing about racing. You never know how it’s going to turn out.”
•Buescher, who has battled back from his failure to qualify for the season’s second race: “We’re going with one goal, which is to win the race. We know we have to get the most points we can in order to have a chance to win the championship.”
•Hornaday, who will make his final start for Kevin Harvick, Inc., where he won championships in 2007 and 2009: “It would be really great for us to … give Kevin and DeLana one last trip to Victory Lane.” Hornaday won in Miami in 2002.
No Single Path Leads To This Year’s Sunoco Rookie Crown
Creation of the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series provided a place to race for drivers from a variety of motorsports disciplines. The three finalists for this year’s Sunoco Rookie of the Year Award may be the most varied contingent yet.
•Miami-area resident Joey Coulter, 21, won two World Karting Association titles before graduating to stock-type car racing. He is the rookie leader, by five points, entering the finale.
•Nelson Piquet Jr., 26, made 28 starts in the Formula One world championship.
•Cole Whitt, 20, is the 2008 U.S. Auto Club national midget champion. He trails Coulter by 10 points in a competition based upon each rookie’s best 14 finishes.
Coulter and RCR teammate Dillon can achieve a sweep of rookie and championship awards done just once by the same organization. Roush Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle and Kurt Busch won championship and rookie of the year, respectively, in 2000.
Race A Building Block For Those Who Came Up Short
This season’s a closed book for most, but it’s never too soon to begin building momentum for 2012. The Ford 200 offers that potential for several likely to be title contenders next season.
•Timothy Peters has ranked among the top five in the championship since race No. 11, winning once.
•Two-time Miami winner Todd Bodine has one final chance to preserve a streak of at least one win in every season since 2004.
•Matt Crafton won in Iowa and led the points standings three times.
•Parker Kligerman had back-to-back second-place finishes at midseason.
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Notes
Hornaday and Setzer are set to become the third and fourth drivers to compete in 300 series races. … The season ends at Homestead for the 10th consecutive season. This year’s NASCAR Nationwide Series and NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Champions Awards Banquet will be held Monday, Nov. 21, at the Loews Miami Beach Hotel.