NASCAR Preview: Looking At Daytona And Beyond

After a short off-season, the start of the 2018 NASCAR season is upon us with Sunday’s running of the 60th annual Daytona 500.

With that in mind, veteran motorsports journalists Pete McCole and Amy Henderson break down their predictions for the “Great American Race” and for the season to come.

What has stood out to you the most so far during Speedweeks?

Amy Henderson: Two things. One, the cars did look racier in the Clash than in recent years, but it seemed like even though it was a non-points race, nobody wanted to make a move on the leader at the end. It looked like if three or four cars had gotten together, they might have made a run. It used to be that the lead was the last place a driver wanted to be taking the white flag, and the plate tracks really need that uncertainty again.

Second, because of the low car count — 40 cars for a 40-car race — there’s little sense of urgency. You didn’t see anyone going out and trying to have the qualifying lap of their lives, and there’s no mystery at all this week. Seems a little anti-climactic compared to how this week has been in the past, when the tension was palpable.

Pete McCole: The clear advantage the Fords have over everyone else. So far, in the 198 laps completed in three races contested so far this Speedweeks, Ford has led a combined 115 of them. Team Penske has carried the flag for Ford, with Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and newcomer Ryan Blaney running 1-2-3 for much of both the Clash and the opening Can-Am Duel.

Chase Elliott’s win in the second Can-Am Duel race notwithstanding, everyone else has a lot of work to do before Sunday’s race.

The low car-count for this year’s Daytona 500 is a little disappointing. There was a time not too long ago where 60 cars showed up for this event, and part of the fun was seeing which of the underdogs would unseat an established team to steal a spot in the 500. Not so this year, and I think that takes a lot of the excitement out of this weekend.

Should NASCAR eliminate the Budweiser Duels and just qualify like they do at other tracks?

AH: There’s every reason to do that. It’s not like the days when there were 10 more entries than spots, and on a plate track, there’s a high chance teams are going to crunch up their best cars before the big race even begins, which for smaller teams is devastating. The alternative is what we’ll probably see: not a lot of action as driver save their equipment knowing they can start pretty much anywhere on Sunday and still have a chance.

But despite all that, no. NASCAR has changed so many things in recent years and it’s too important to keep some traditions alive. I like the added benefit of a few points being handed out, which adds a little incentive to make some moves. This is the biggest race of the year, and it needs the pageantry now as much as ever. What I would like to see is shortening the Duels significantly, maybe run 25-30 laps apiece and call it a race. That gives less time for those single-file parade laps fans hate while keeping the week special and different.

PM: The Duel races used to be a true qualifying race – drivers who ordinarily would never have qualified for Daytona could enter the Duel and a least have a equal shot of making the field for the “Great American Race”, where even a last-place finish could mean a six-digit payday for a struggling race team.

But with only 40 entries for this year’s race, everyone is guaranteed to make the show, making the Duels somewhat meaningless, except for pit selection. If I were one of the owners of one of the smaller-budget operations – like Rick Ware Racing or Beard Motorsports – with nothing to gain other than a better starting spot, I might consider laying back – WAY back – or bagging it altogether. The very nature of restrictor-plate racing means where you ultimately start is not as important as where you wind up at the end of the race.

Rank the 3 manufacturers chances of winning Sunday in order.

AH: From what we saw in the Clash, it’s hard to pick a favorite by make alone. I feel like Toyota and Ford have a slight edge in terms of the men driving them, with Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski leading the charge. The Chevys have the disadvantage of the pointy nose, giving those drivers something new to gets used to, but the make doesn’t really have a driver who’s super consistent on plate tracks recently. Jimmie Johnson is now the winningest active driver at Daytona but he’s so inconsistent there that it’s hard to pick him as a favorite. Same goes for Jamie McMurray. Kyle Larson doesn’t stand out as a plate racer. Chase Elliott looked good in the Clash, but hasn’t been around long enough to be on the threat list yet.

PM: 1.Ford – They’ve taken two of the three races so far this Speedweeks, there’s nothing to say they can’t do it again. 2. Chevy – because I really want to see a Camaro in Victory Lane. 3.Toyota.

What’s the best possible outcome for NASCAR this Sunday?

AH: A win by a youngster. NASCAR is in the midst of a major transition as several top drivers age out, and in order to keep those drivers’ fans interested, the sport needs young guns who can win races and draw some of the fan base from those who are departing for retirement. The heir apparent to Dale Earnhardt, Jr. as Most Popular Driver is shaping up to be Chase Elliott, and a win at Daytona might just seal the deal. Alex Bowman, the polesitter and the man taking over Earnhardt’s ride, might bring a smile to Earnhardt Nation with a win. A good, clean race with a young talent in Victory Lane would kick 2018 off right.

PM: A controversy-free finish. It would be great to see race decided on the racetrack, instead of decided by the rulebook. I’d love to see the last 40-50 laps go caution free – drivers come in for their last pit stops and then race full-out to the finish. No “debris cautions”, no “NASCAR overtime”, no one dumping someone on the final lap – just a clean, fast race for the win.

What’s the worst possible outcome for NASCAR this weekend?

AH: The worst thing that can happen is the one thing that’s always in the back of minds at Daytona: a repeat of 2001. The sport has come a long way since a driver lost his life in the top series, but it will never be without risk, and the nature of plate tracks lends itself to more than most. We’ve seen some pretty grisly crashes at Daytona recently — the drivers have all walked away, but there’s still that nagging feeling that someday, one won’t. NASCAR recovered to a degree in 2001 as the sport was on the rise with new fans climbing on the bandwagon every day, but that’s not the case in 2018, and a season-opening tragedy would be devastating.

Other than that, a lot of fans would tell you a win by Jimmie Johnson…

PM: A race that comes down to multiple green-white checkered attempts to decide the winner.

While I had applauded NASCAR’s efforts in the past to ensure its fans that the race would always end under green, more recently I’ve questioned the wisdom of doing this at the restrictor-plate tracks.
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As we saw in last weekend’s ARCA race, multiple G-W-C three-lap shootouts increasingly lead to mayhem on the track. Over the course of three green-white-checkered attempts, no less than a dozen cars were wadded up – including three of the top FOUR cars that were leading with less than a lap to go.

That might be something the fans watching on TV want to see, but that’s not what NASCAR needs.

Will the first accident involving 8 or more cars occur before or after lap 150?

AH: I say there’s a small “Big One” before that; someone usually makes a mistake early and collects a half dozen or so. Late in the race, we’ll see a bigger Big One, with double that amount. Perhaps the better questions would be “How many will be running at the end?”

PM: I’m thinking we’ll have multi-car crashed before and after we get to 150 laps, with a few more smaller ones mixed in as we get toward the finish 20 laps. I wouldn’t be surprised to see within the last two laps of each of the first two stages on Sunday.

Who is a driver to watch out for this season?

AH: The first name that comes to mind is Kyle Larson. Larson won four times last year in a Chevrolet while the manufacturer was a step behind, and if not for some mechanical woes in the playoffs, might have challenged Martin Truex, Jr. for the title. This year, the Chevys have put up numbers in the wind tunnel close to the Toyota camp, and that bodes well for Larson to knock Jimmie Johnson off the hill as the manufacturer’s top dog.

Which may not last long, because the Chase Elliott train is also coming. He’s got that look that suggests once he wins he’ll keep on winning. Larson and Elliott are two fresh faces among the usual suspects, something the sport needs to move forward.

PM: Chase Elliott. I know he’s the sentimental favorite to win the Daytona 500, but looking long term I think Elliott has matured over the last two seasons and we’ll finally start to see him step up his game in 2018. Look for him to finally break into Victory Lane this year, maybe more than once.

What driver could most use a win this Sunday?

AH: When I think of a driver who really needs to find a little mojo, Clint Bowyer comes to mind. He’s too talented to be done winning.

PM: Danica Patrick. I’d love to see her in Victory Lane, holding the Harley J. Earl Trophy and sticking it in the face of all the haters out there. It’ll never happen, but I’d love to see it.

Give us a potential sleeper to win the 2018 Daytona 500.

AH: Well, it’s a restrictor-plate race, so…pretty much anyone? I’m not sure if a former Daytona winner can be considered a sleeper, but Aric Almirola is worth watching. He has a win in the summer race at Daytona and won the Xfinity race at Talladega last year with an underfunded team.He’s one of those guys who’s strong in plate races that nobody really thinks about.

PM: If any of the youngsters manage to stay out of trouble long enough to be on contention late in the race, look for one of them to step and make a move for the win. They’re all hungry and a Daytona 500 victory can be a big temptation to try a hail-Mary move on the last lap.

What is shaping up to be the biggest story this season?

AH: As NASCAR enters its 70th season, I think you have to look at where the sport is headed going into the next decade, and whit it will look like at 80 and beyond. It’s the first time in 40 years there’s not an Earnhardt in a competitive ride and the first time in history without an Earnhardt or a Petty (and hard to believe Adam Petty, once the future hope for his family’s race team, would have turned 38 this year. He’ll be forever 19 in most fans’ hearts). Fans are restless, with many unhappy with the direction the sport has taken. There’s no long-term deal in place for a title sponsor, and a revolving door of short-term backers will eventually erode the tradition that has been the cornerstone of NASCAR. Drivers and cars will come and go, but the sport as a whole has some questions to answer when it comes to its own long-term health.

PM: The current state of the sport has got everyone wondering where NASCAR goes from here. There are rumors of a possible sale, and we still don’t know whether or not Monster Energy is going to step up and pick up their option to continue as title sponsor for the Cup series through 2020. If not, come this summer, NASCAR could be searching for yet another new title sponsor.

The overall health of the sport concerning after seeing NASCAR lose some big-time sponsors like Coors Light and the difficulty teams are having attracting sponsors. TV ratings are flat and advertising rates are down, and they don’t show any signs of improving anytime soon.

NASCAR’s current TV deal runs through 2022, and that is the lone bright spot for the sanction body that they don’t have to worry about – yet.

Who steps up to lead this sport now that so many veterans have left?

AH: It might be a couple years early to ask that question—you’ve got an active seven-time champion who’s been a strong, if quiet, voice who’s well-respected in the racing community. Brad Keselowski has also stepped up as an outspoken, honest voice who’s not afraid to say what everyone is thinking. The youngsters will grow into leadership roles in due time, but the sport isn’t without a leader by any means.

PM: During last month’s NASCAR Media Tour, Kyle Busch pointed out the perception that NASCAR has favored the younger drivers over the veterans, but the argument can be made that some of the veteran drivers like Busch and Kevin Harvick haven’t done much to stand up to NASCAR and show some initiative to lead this sport. If these veteran drivers are tired of playing second-fiddle to the “Young Guns”, they’re going to need step up, or risk behind left in the dust.